Dairy Herd Expected To Contract, Pushing Prices Higher

Fewer cows, higher feed costs, tighter supplies.  That’s the summary of USDA's outlook for the dairy sector in 2023.

“Well, we're expecting to see is a slight decline in the average dairy herd somewhere down to about 9.83 million head in 2023.”

USDA Livestock Analyst Shayle Shagam says that is the lowest herd replacement number since 2005.  And that’s expected to lead to lower milk production despite a 1% year-over-year increase in cow production.

“We are looking generally at lower product prices across the year the class III price of about $17.90, the class IV prices are expected to average about $18.25.”

Shagam noted the all milk price for this year forecasted at $20.17 cwt per hundred weight down from last year but still the second highest all milk price since 2014.

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