Still To Early To Tell If Beef Remains In Contraction Mode

Are beef cattle producers starting to hold back some heifers for breeding or not?

Are we still in contraction mode?

Friday's USDA Cattle on Feed report offers hardly any clue to that.  USDA livestock analyst Shayle Shagam said we will have to wait a month for the next real clue.

“When we get the October 1st inventory number, it will provide us with a breakout of the of the sex of the animals on feed," Shagam noted.  "So that could provide us with the little indication about whether or not you know we're seeing higher proportions of heifers being put on feed. Yeah, which could give us a little bit of an indication about the retention of heifers for distribution to the breeding herd.”

Last week’s Cattle on Feed report shows August placements into feedlots, 1% below a year ago, and the September 1st feed lot inventory up 1%.

“Feedlots, marketed about 1.8 million head of cattle during August, which was about 4% below a year ago, but one has to adjust that number for the fact that there was one fewer slaughter day in 2024. So when you make that adjustment, we're actually about 0.8% above 2023," Shagam added.

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