Do Crop Reports Mean Price Drops Are Coming?

You may have heard that crop prices always drop after a big USDA report, but is that true?

The USDA started tracking this particular phenomenon in 2004, but also going back into the 1980s and Lance Honig with NASS said it’s actually something of a myth.

“What we found over looking back to the mid-80s tracking all these reports; it’s actually fairly close to a 50-50 proposition. Technically a few more times prices have decreased.”

Honig said the data doesn’t bear out the idea that prices always drop after a USDA crop report noting the numbers broke down as 521 times, prices dropped. 476 times, prices went up and 47 times there was no change.