Cattle Herd Contraction Appears To Be Continuing

How big is the U.S. cattle herd?  Budget constraints have caused the USDA to limit the number of reports it releases.  Among these is the July Cattle Inventory Report.  However, there is enough historical context from which some conclusions may be drawn.

“A model estimates the July 1 U.S. cattle inventory to be 94.2 million head or 1.2% lower than in July 2023," said Dr. Jason Franken is Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics.  "Hence, it appears the U.S. cattle industry overall remains in a contractionary phase, even if there may be regional pockets of expansion.”

Given the low inventory and cattle on feed numbers, Franken maintains that 2024 beef production will be 1.1% lower than last year and drop another 4.5% in 2025.  The per capita beef consumption is expected to remain near 58 pounds per person this year and drop to 56.3 pounds in 2025.  Dr. Franken said he predicts cattle prices are likely to remain above year-ago levels.

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