How Has The Smaller Winter Wheat Crop Impacted Global Numbers?

Last week, USDA released its first survey-based winter wheat forecast for this year's crop.  World Agricultural Outlook Board Chair Mark Jekanowski took a look not only at the numbers, but the impact on the domestic balance sheet.

“Total U.S. production down about 423 million bushels to about 1.56 billion bushels in terms of U.S. production," Jekanowski said.  "While we get the winter wheat production forecast from NASS for spring wheat, we are still basing that part of the forecast on prospective plantings and expected trend yields. and whatnot.  So, these numbers are still rather tentative, but they point to a much tighter wheat balance sheet for next year.”

Jekanowski added when it comes to world supply and demand estimate for total wheat.

“It's reflected in tighter production worldwide, led by that reduction in the U.S.," Jekanowski said.  "So overall global wheat production down almost 25 million tons.”

Jekanowski added USDA’s export forecast is down about 135 million bushels year-over-year, with the season average market price forecast for next year's wheat crop at $6.50; an increase of $1.50 year-over-year.

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