Minor Changes Made To Beef Outlook

When it comes to USDA's July Outlook of meat, production and prices,

“The changes were relatively minor," noted World Agricultural Outlook Board chair Mark Jekanowski.  He added the USDA assumed that the border with Mexico remains closed to cattle trade, meaning the U.S. would not take in any cattle from Mexico.  When it comes to U.S. beef production, 2025’s number was lowered a little bit, 170 million pounds, based on relatively slower pace of slaughter, especially steers and heifers recently.

“And for 2026, we raised our beef production forecast by about 540 million pounds.   These are not cattle coming in from Mexico," Jekanowski said.  "This is all going to be mostly U.S. cattle and some beef imports, but that just reflects higher U.S. cattle placements in the second half of the year and that will become beef next year and reflecting the fact that we've also had a pretty good crop last year.  So, that should also support those supplies going into 2026.  Steer prices were adjusted just a tad lower for 2025, mainly reflecting prices reported in the second quarter; that adjusts our annual price forecast lower by 19 cents cwt to $221.31 cwt.”

Jekanowski added no changes were made to the 2026 steer price forecast, which would be up $7.19 per cwt year-over-year.

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