Market estimates show that Brazil surpassed the U.S. as the world’s number one beef producer in 2025. Reuters said that happened after Brazil beat output forecasts by hundreds of thousands of tons.
Beef prices are projected to continue increasing in 2026 as U.S. beef production continues to decline, with no obvious signs of a rebuilding cattle herd.
The latest forecast from USDA shows a slight increase in beef production this year and next. The Department says the increase this year is up to 190 million pounds, while 2026’s number increased to 340 million pounds.
President Trump drew the ire of the U.S. cattle industry after proposing to import more beef from Argentina to help lower beef prices at U.S. grocery stores.
When it comes to U.S. beef production, 2025’s number was lowered a little bit, 170 million pounds, based on relatively slower pace of slaughter, especially steers and heifers recently.
The latest USDA Cattle on Feed report shows more tightening of cattle and beef supplies nationwide.
“We have relatively smaller inventories in feedlots, relative to a year ago, with fewer placements and fewer marketings," said Livestock analyst Michael McConnell. "That's ...