How Accurate Are USDA’s October Forecasts?

Speaking of the USDA’s October crop production forecast   How likely is it that the crop yields being forecast in this report end up being the yields.  Lance Honig with USDA’s NASS says, "very likely".  He noted that the October USDA crop yield forecast over the years, remarkably accurate most of the time.

“In fact, over the last 25 years, the change from October to final has really only varied from going down less than a bushel to up less than five bushels and on average. Over a 25 year span, that average changed from October to the final year was only less than half a bushel, down about half a bushel, and per soybeans kind of comparable, if you look over 10-25 years it it moves less than half a bushel on average and the total range that we see is usually within a couple of bushels."

Honig noted with this growing season rapidly coming to an end, there's not much left at this point that can impact yield numbers.

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