Beef Herd Expansion May Come To An End

2018 was the fifth year in a row of beef cattle herd expansion, but that could be changing.

"Now we're beginning to see potential signs that we may be peaking out in terms of the expansion of the herd."

USDA livestock analyst Shayle Shagam said last week's cattle inventory shows a 1% year-over-year increase in beef cow numbers.

"We are looking at beef cow replacement numbers, which are down 3%. So, while producers were holding more beef cows on the the first, they were intending to bring fewer heifers into the beef cow herd during the year."

However, Shagam points out the number of so-called "other" heifers not designated as to how they'll be used  is up 3% making those animals the "swing factor".

"They could be put in feed last during the year, but if conditions warranted, some of those animals could be held back by producers."

So, Shagam said most signs point to the beef herd expansion coming to an end in 2019, but there's still some doubt.​