What Does USDA Expect From Wednesday’s Crop Report?

USDA's next crop reports will be released September 12^th, and analysts are wondering whether they'll bring those unexpectedly high August projections down.  There's a lot of speculation, but one thing is certain: those crops are a month further along in their development, increasing the chance of an accurate forecast.

"Because as the crop gets closer to maturity, it's always easier to get a measurement of exactly what that yield's gonna be."

Lance Honig with USDA's statistics service said experts are taking measurements of corn and soybean crops on over 7,500 field plots.  Crop progress reports show most crops developing just a little ahead of average for this time.

"The more mature the crop is, the easier it is to interpret what that final yield is going to be. So, being a little bit ahead this year should give us a little bit of an advantage."

As to how close the September crop report might be to the final harvest, over the last 20 years for corn, the projects have been below the final harvest 10 times, and above 10 times. The average difference, though, only 271 million bushels.  For soybeans, the September report has under-estimated the final harvest 13 years out of the last 20. ​

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