Milk Fairly Quiet In First USDA Outlook Report Of 2026

A mixed bag of month-over-month adjustments in various milk production and trade forecasts in USDA's January report.  World Agricultural Outlook Board Char Mark Jekanowski said production were very small in January, mainly driven by higher milk per cow, which he said more than offset the herd growth slowdown.

When it comes to dairy trade projections.

“We're anticipating continued strength in exports of fat-based products, butter, and to some extent, cheese. as well," Jekanowski  said.  "On the other hand, protein-based products, whey, non-fat dry milk, we're seeing pretty strong domestic demand for those products that is keeping more of the product off of the export market.”

That, Jekanowski noted, was reflected in price projections.

“Our Class III price we lowered this month by 70 cents cwt, as those lower cheese prices more than offset higher whey prices," he said.  "Class IV prices we raised by five cents cwt as strength and nonfat dry milk prices more than offset lower butter prices. And the all-milk price for 2026 we lowered by 50 cents cwt, now forecast at $18.25 cwt, and if realized that would be down $2.90 cwt year-over-year.”

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