Rabobank says milk production grew modestly across the Big Seven exporting regions in the U.S. during Q1, expanding by 0.5% year-over-year.  In total, RaboResearch forecasts 2025 milk production from the Big Seven at 326.7 million metric tons, an increase of 1%, or 3.2 million metric tons, the highest annual volume gain since 2020.  However, demand concerns are mounting in many economies as consumer sentiment has waned amid weak and uncertain global economic conditions.

 

”A number of factors are weighing on demand,” said Mary Ledman, Global Dairy Strategist at RaboResearch. “These include record or near-record-low consumer confidence in the U.S., troubling indicators of economic struggles in China, and declining sales data from restaurants and consumer packaged goods companies in many regions.”

 

 

The Next Six Months Could Be Challenging

 

Demand trends are expected to weigh on prices, especially as global buyers become more aware of increasing milk production.

 

“We anticipate more downside risks in the second half of 2025,” Ledman added.

 

The Big Seven regions include California, Wisconsin, Idaho, followed by Texas, New York, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

 

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