For milk and most dairy products, “prices have started to decline, quicker than we had expected,” noted USDA outlook board chairman Mark Jekanowski.  He added it's a combination of continued increases in milk and dairy production plus weak demand and pretty strong international competition.


So far all of 2023 compared to 2022, USDA is projecting U.S. milk output will grow by just under 2.5 billion pounds, which comes out to less than 1%.  The average all milk price though will go the opposite direction, dropping by almost $4 cwt, or about 15%.


“So, with that reduction in milk price and really no corresponding reduction in the price of feed you know if anything maybe some upward pressure, that potentially will squeeze those margins to the point where the dairy program could start to pay out.”


The last time the Dairy Margin Coverage program paid out was September.


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