NWFCS: Wheat Prices Expected To Remain Flat, Hay Exports Continues To Grow
As we wrap up our five part series on Northwest Farm Credit Services’ 4th quarter outlook, we take a look at wheat and hay. Karen Witt, Vice President of NWFCS said wheat prices remain around break even on large global stocks.
"India, a large buyer of pulse crops instituted import tariffs on peas, lentils and garbanzo beans, all grown in rotation with wheat reduced exports to India will lead to lower overall profitability.”
The 12-month outlook suggests low wheat prices are likely to persist in 2018. Higher prices, she notes will be constrained by record world production and high ending stocks. Witt also notes profitability will also be lower due to reduced revenue from rotation crops, such as peas, lentils and garbanzo beans.
When looking at hay figures, Witt said alfalfa Hay exports remain strong, growing an additional 227,000 metric tons year over year. Saudi Arabia is the fastest growing market, up 106,000 tons from this time last year; however much of that hay was produced in the American Southwest.
“Northwest hay producers benefit most from a growing Chinese demand, up 93,000 tons. Dairy hay stocks are adequate as milk prices fall, domestic demand slows. Northwest Farm Credit Services’ 12 month outlook suggests Alfalfa and Timothy producers will remain slightly profitable,” Witt noted.
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