USDA has reduced its milk production forecast for 2021 by 200 million pounds this month to 228.2 billion pounds. 

"That mainly reflects our expectations of reduced mil per cow. So lower productivity and that is reflecting the high heat conditions especially in the West," noted World Outlook Board Chair, Mark Jekanowski. "Higher stress on dairy cows; they just tend not to produce as much milk given those conditions. So that's driving most of the decrease for 2021. We expect that rebound in 2022. So milk per cow growth should resume, and cow growth is expected to continue as well.

So, Jekanowski pointed out, USDA increased it's 2022 milk production forecast, "by a half billion pounds. And that would lead to a year over year increase in milk production of about 3.4 billion pounds."

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