La Nina May Develop Again This Winter

The National Weather Service recently issued a La Nina watch, meaning the possibility of the global weather pattern returning later this year, or into early next.  Two things USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey noted about the watch.

“There is a likelihood of La Nina formation, but certainly we are nowhere near that point yet," Rippey said.  "We're just starting to see some signs of things happening in the Equatorial Pacific pointing us in the direction of La Nina.”

No Agreement On La Nina At This Time

Rippey added forecasters aren’t in agreement at this point, with some calling for a weak and short lived La Nina.  That Rippey said, is why the odds are currently placed at about 60% chance of La Nina fully developing.

Historically La Nina translates into increased drought potential in the western and southern U.S.  Rippey noted La Nina has developed with some regularity over recent winters.

“If it does occur, it will be the fifth time in the last six winters that we have seen either La Nina or La Nina like conditions across the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean," Rippey said.  "Going back to the winter of 2020-21 and extending through the winter of 2022-23, we saw what we call a very rare, triple dip La Nina, where we had La Nina for three consecutive winters.  In records going back to the mid 20th century, we have only seen that two other times, then we followed that with a single year with El Nino and then during the winter of 2024-25 we saw very much La Nina like conditions across the United States.”

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