The USDA says the national winter wheat crop is bigger than many analyst expected. NASS' Lance Honig said the USDA is booting its winter wheat yield forecast a little bit less than 1%. But he said compared to last year, yields are projected to increase by more than 5%. Production though, at 1.36 billion bushels would be up 4% from the previous forecast.

"That's because at the end of the month, in June, of course we did increase both planted and harvested area for winter wheat."

Honig noted acreage is up 10.5% from last season and production is up 16.5%. Totally different story when it comes to spring wheat, with the drought really taking an impact in yields.

"30.7 bushels per acre is our forecast. That is down 36.8% from last year's yield."

Honig noted that is the lowest in over 20 years. Production he added could be 41% below last year at over 344.5 million bushes.

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