The latest USDA Cattle Lot Feed Inventory report shows the first year over year decrease since October 2014.  Numbers on September 1st down slightly, but it was still down 1% at 11 million head.  Feed lot placements in August was down 9% year-over-year, so does this indicate an impending contraction of the herd?

“Part of its going to depend on what cow calf operators are looking at,” said USDA Livestock Analyst Shale Shagam.  “At the moment there margins are zero to negative in that respect of you getting a signal that you probably don't want to expand, but it's not a very strong signal. As long as you forge, as long as you have grass availability, you may take what you see attitude hoping that as these numbers continue to decline princes will start moving up.”

 

Shagam noted the USDA believes that will occur next year.

 

 

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