What’s USDA’s Accuracy Track Record for its Ten Year Projections?

Each year for more than a quarter century, the US Department of Agriculture has put out a report that attempts to predict the future, more or less.

"We take what we know now, and we ask what the world will look like ten years from now," said Analyst David Stallings.  He coordinates the report, which doesn't take into account any unpredictable weather or economic upheaval, and assumes no significant changes to government policy. Still, it provides a good, long-term baseline projection.

To determine its accuracy, the USDA took a look at the report for 2008 which provided a forecast for 2017.  Back in 2008, analysts thought corn would average $3.60 a bushel. The actual price was $3.20.  The wheat forecast was very accurate, projecting 2017 prices as $4.65, actual price was $4.60.  The report predicted that soybeans would be $9.00, the actual price was $9.30.

The analysis missed the mark on exports, where 2008 projections called for $103 Billion, when it actually ended up being well over $140 Billion.  This year, analysts are working to predict ag markets for the decade leading up to 2027.