USDA: Smallest Orange Crop In Nearly 100 Years

Florida's contribution to USDA's all orange production forecast this time of year is significant as one of the leading orange growing states.  However, for the National Agricultural Statistics Services’ December Orange production report, it is not a production increase that makes the Sunshine State notable. 

“All oranges for Florida this month is 12 million. That's down 20% from the October forecast of 15 million boxes.  The all oranges is down from the previous season 33%,” according to Mark Hudson of USDA NASS in Florida. He noted that these forecast over forecast production decreases are caused by. 

“Hurricane Milton came through and went right up through the citrus belt,” Hudson pointed out.  “That was a contributing factor to this decline.” 

Yet when it comes to year over year forecast, these numbers are significant as. 

“If this forecast is realized. It'll be the smallest crop since 8.95 million boxes in the 1929-1930; season back for the head irrigation.” 

What is behind the forecast?  Hudson calls it an “imperfect storm”. 

“Our bearing trees are down, our fruit per tree is down, our size is small, and our drop is high.  Then we had Milton come through.” 

The breakdown of reduced Florida orange production by category, per the December forecast, includes: 

“The non-Valencia oranges went from six million in October to December, five million boxes, which is down 17%.  And in the Valencia oranges went from nine million boxes in October to seven million boxes in December, which is down 22%.  Now comparing it to previous years, the non-Valencia is about 26% and the Valencias are down 38%”. 

The Florida orange production total contributes to a 5% decrease from October in the US, All Orange production forecast. 

“Texas and California and Arizona, their estimates from October are carried over from October until January, when next time they will be updated,” Hudson continued.