The USDA released its new Ag trade forecast Tuesday and the main takeaway, is the revised export number.  USDA chief economist Seth Meyer said analysts were already anticipating an Ag export value decline since 2022 set a new record high for U.S. exports $196.4 billion.  However, it looks like for 2023 exports will drop $6.4 billion year over year.


Meyer said if you're looking for reasons for lower export values there are lots of them but the largest factor that’s impacting all exports, not just farm exports, the strengthening U.S. dollar.


“It's just a general influence on limiting exports.  I think global GDP growth is definitely part of the story and uncertainty and cotton prices, and then the other side of that is that record large import demand is certainly a part of dollar strength.  Right?  I mean when you look at it that way you've got you've got products import products having a relatively better competitive advantage given the strength in the U.S. dollar."


Meyer added because of that strengthening dollar, Ag imports are expected to grow next year to $199 billion, a new record high.


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