Larger Wildfires in 2026 Fueled by Drought and Heat

AccuWeather is forecasting a slightly lower number of wildfires nationwide this year, but warns that those that ignite could be more intense and destructive.  Experts say conditions such as drought, heat, wind, and dry vegetation are increasing the likelihood of fast-spreading fires.

This Season Could Be Similar To 2020

“Expanding drought, combined with heat, wind, and dry vegetation, is a dangerous combination,” said Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster.

He noted that, similar to the severe 2020 season, fires this year could grow rapidly and become harder to control, while also spreading smoke across large portions of the country.

The Northwest Could Face Some Of The Greatest Risk

AccuWeather projects 65,000 to 80,000 wildfires nationwide, with 5.5 to 8 million acres burned, potentially exceeding last year’s total.  The Inland Northwest and Rockies are expected to face the highest risk.  The Northwest wildfire season is expected to start "near normal" before the risk expands in July and August as fuels dry out, mountain snow completely melts and lightning from dry thunderstorms sparks fires.

“Even if the total number of fires is lower, that does not mean the overall risk is reduced," Pastelok said, emphasizing growing nationwide concerns.

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