Hot, Dry Weather Expected In The West This Summer

What might weather look like where you are at at this month and the summer months? USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey offers an outlook, including:

“We are watching the western and central U.S. for the possibility of drought expansion or intensification. We do expect consistently hot conditions along and west of the line from Montana to the Southern Plains. Heat could contribute to an active western wildfire season.” 

As for the eastern? Half of the nation. 

“Long range forecast tools have been consistent in showing wetness developing in the eastern U.S. even before the start of hurricane season.” 

Rippey said the Rockies is the apparent dividing line between hotter weather in the west, cooler to the east.

“That implies we could have more of a northwesterly flow coming into the upper Midwest, but that's not necessarily a good thing in terms of rainfall, cause it cuts off that Gulf and Atlantic moisture from reaching up into that region. So, little concern that it could be a cool drought in places like the Dakotas this summer.” 

And as for the weather outlook for late summer and early fall, the August to October period:

“Still looks like a hot forecast for the western U.S., possibly in the deep south and the east as well," Rippey said.  "Maybe a little bit more favorable in the upper Midwest.” 

As for possible long-range precipitation, or lack thereof.

“Model consensus suggests the Southwest could finally get some good drought relief with the monsoon season starting in July and beyond, and then tropical moisture, organized or not, could lead to wet weather in the eastern U.S. later this year continuing," Rippey said.  " A ridge of high pressure maybe kind of tilt it a little bit oriented from northwest through Texas, that's where your heat may be concentrated monsoon possibilities in the southwest. Tropical rains in the southeast and still that kind of pesky dry or drought signal for the northern plains, far upper Midwest and the models have been very consistent the last few months in forecasting some type of dry signal for that area. So, that is a concern especially where drought already exists.” 

Rippey makes the caveat regarding long, long-range weather forecast and predictions. 

“These are 90- or 92-day averages, so you can have a lot of variability within this forecast and obviously, timely rains are critical when it comes to agriculture. So how it's distributed does matter.”

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