Farm Trade Deficit Continues To Grow

The USDA is projecting another record Ag trade deficit this fiscal year as imports surge and exports lag.  USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer says this is the 3rd year of this current trend.

“From ’23 to ’24, we saw more than a 10-billion-dollar year-over-year increase. This year, we’re looking at something in the range of eight-billion-dollar year-over-year increase.”

Translating into more than $215 billion dollars in ag imports.  While exports for fiscal year 2024 are forecast at $174.4 billion, falling $4.4 billion to $170 billion for fiscal year 2025.  Meyer pointed out that would lead to a projected $45.5 billion Ag trade deficit this fiscal year, up nearly $14 billion from the FY 2024 previous record deficit of $31.8 billion.

“Part of that is because commodity prices were peaking out in 2022," he pointed out.  "So, again, here, exports falling in this situation isn’t necessarily a surprise as commodity prices continue to moderate.”

Meyer added this is occurring as imports of fruits and vegetables continue to grow, and market-sensitive coffee imports have also risen.  The latest Ag trade forecast comes as President-elect Trump threatens stiff tariffs on China and other competitors; many in farm country fear those steps could lead to another trade war.

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