FAPRI Releases The 2019 U.S. Baseline Outlook

Pressure on farm finances appears likely to continue.  According to the 2019 U.S. Baseline Outlook from the Food and Agriculture Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri, projected net farm income will increase in 2019 but remains below the 2014-17 average.  Longer-term projections suggest little change in real net farm income over the next decade, resulting in continued increases in the farm sector’s debt-to-asset ratio.

Projected prices for U.S. soybeans and other products affected by current trade disputes remain below levels that would prevail if foreign tariffs were removed. Marketing-year-average soybean prices are projected to stay below $9.00 per bushel for a second straight year in 2019/2020, and corn prices are estimated to increase from averaging $3.53 in the current marketing year, up to $3.81.  Further recovery in wheat prices could be limited by continued large global supplies, while cotton prices could fall in response to increased U.S. production.

The estimates were prepared before the March 29 USDA planting intentions report was released, which suggests slightly more acres of corn and fewer acres of wheat and cotton than included in the outlook.

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