Cow Inventories Help Push Milk Production Forecast Higher

April’s Milk Supply and Demand reports showed a mixture of changes to start the month.

“U.S. milk production forecast, we raised by 600 million pounds this month, just reflecting the latest milk production report. In terms of dairy product trade, we're looking at pretty large cheese and butter supplies and quite competitive prices globally," said World Agricultural Outlook Board Chair Mark Jekanowski.  "We reduced our fat basis imports forecast by half a billion pounds this month, fat basis exports we raised that forecast by 1.5 billion pounds.  Kim Solid Basis Products raised our export forecast by 700 million pounds.”

Jekanowski added milk prices this month primarily increased, leading to an 80-cent month-over-month rise in the all-milk price, which now sits at $20.50 cwt.

So, what were the main factors that led to the forecasted production increase?

“That is driven by increase in cow inventories, so continued growth in cow inventories that more than offsets a little bit of a slowdown in the growth in milk per cow," Jekanowski said.  "So overall on net, higher milk production. And year-over-year, we're looking at an increase of about 3.6 billion pounds of milk production in the U.S.”

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