USMCA Is Still On The Books

It didn’t come as a major surprise that the United States decided to not renew USMCA in its current form. But, that doesn’t mean the Administration’s decision wasn’t met with disappointment among many of America’s key agricultural groups and stakeholders.

“Mexico and Canada, on an annual basis, are continually #1 and #2 destinations for U.S. agricultural products," said Dr. Megan Roberts, agricultural economist with Compeer Financial. "It might seem like Canada would be the obvious number #1 destination because of geography, but that isn't necessarily the case. For U.S. dairy as a whole, Mexico is actually the most consistent dairy trade partner. In 2025, it was an export destination of $2.58 billion.”

Now We move Through An Annual Review Process

Roberts noted despite the administration’s decision to not renew it, the agreement is still in place.

“We have had this in place since the first Trump administration, and this summer, particularly just a week ago, July 1st was the renewal and review date, and what was announced was that we're going to move from a renewal to an annual review," Roberts said. "So, USMCA is still in place, but we are now going through annual review processes, and that is maybe going to create a little more uncertainty on this agreement.”

What kind of impact could this decision have on the U.S. farming community?

“Well, that might come down to your perspectives on overall trade, and so that I can't answer from a personal perspective, but taking the politics out of it and really just focusing on the policy, if we look at the policy and the economic impacts of additional trade outlets for dairy products, for United States agricultural products, trade has been a positive for raising the overall price and the overall market, and maybe evening out some of the ups and downs for things like dairy, because we've had more places to export our products,” Roberts said.

Regular Negotiations Moving Forward

USMCA now goes to an annual review for ten years and will expire after a decade if it’s not renewed before then.

"It means that we're going to see these trade discussions between our trade representatives in Canada, Mexico, and the United States continue," Roberts said. "There is, instead of a longer-term agreement, they will be negotiating on a more regular basis. So, for some opinions, that's really going to be a positive. Then, on the other side, there's maybe less of that long-term certainty, because you have these annual discussions.”

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