Challenging Times Expected To Continue For The Apple Sector

The U.S. apple industry is facing mounting pressure as record supplies, flat demand, and rising production costs squeeze grower returns.  During a recent webinar, Chris Gerlach, USApple’s Vice President of Insights and Analytics noted for the 2025-2026 season, fresh grower prices are mixed.

“[They are] definitely correlated negatively or correlated to supply," Gerlach said.  "Supply is high, prices are low, et cetera.  Processors are up historically.  2023-2025, fresh production in terms of the demand curves, production around 160 million bushels seem to have exceeded demand thresholds, sending prices to around $30 a box. below the cost of production, at least with labor rates, what they are now, and the other costs going up.”

Cost Of Doing Business Continue To Move Higher

Another pressure growers are facing, as Gerlach pointed out, the dramatic jump in inputs.

“Like gasoline and fertilizer and just about everything else, is up," Gerlach said.  "Fortunately, AEWR is down. Unfortunately, negative returns for consecutive years is putting a great deal of hardship on our industry.”

Weather Expected To Be An Issue This Year

While the 2025/2026 harvest was lower than the highwater mark reported just a few seasons ago, with 292 million bushels in 2023, this most recent crop was up 2% year-over-year.  And while he wouldn’t speculate about this year’s crop, size or quality, Gerlach noted weather in the New York/Pennsylvania area will likely impact growers there, which could have an impact on prices into the future.

Gerlach added apple growers nationwide are growing more fruit on fewer acres, which is a success story that needs to be shared.

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