Winter Wheat Growers Face A Complex Climate

Winter wheat growers nationwide are facing a complex landscape as they look at the 2026 growing season, characterized by intense market fluctuations and environmental stress.  Todd Hubbs, crop marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, said the wheat markets are facing significant volatility.

“Everything is still responding to geopolitical tensions and a little bit of weather, because the crop here in the southern plains isn't looking great," Hubbs noted.  "So, I think we're seeing a little bit of support from the weather and just the general uncertainty around what's going on in the Strait of Hormuz. There is some hope out there, and I'm guilty of this, the 60-mile-per-hour crop review. You know, as you drive by, that looks pretty good. But when I've talked to people, when you get out in the field, maybe some freeze damage, you know, it just depends on, field to field. It is very spotty. You know, going by at 60 MPH is probably not the best way to judge a crop. But, you know, there are fields around that look pretty good. There is some hope out there, if we get a good series of rains and temperatures calm down, but it looks like the conditions are pretty bad, and Oklahomans out in the western part of the state can't seem to get any rain in any timely manner, and I think that crop is in trouble.”

Hubbs added geopolitical headlines are going to continue to push the markets up and down.

“Quite a bit. It's not going to quit anytime soon, and there's a long tail on these energy shocks to your energy prices, like diesel and gas, and in our fertilizer markets," Hubbs said.  "It's going to take a while to rebuild those. If it ended today, it would take a while to rebuild those supply chains and get things moving in the world back in some kind of shape that it was before this all started. The markets are telling us we're not going to see any kind of return to normal, even by the end of this year.  We'll see.  I'm hopeful we can get some kind of resolution and some reversion, but yep, that's still out there, and it's still causing a lot of volatility.”

And he pointed out the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is making things difficult.

“The cost of everything goes up. The thing about diesel is that at some point, not just on the farm, but on-highway diesel as well, and all of our transportation runs through diesel," Hubbs said.  "It can be a very inflationary problem when diesel prices spike like they are, because it filters through to all our goods, and we've seen it go up tremendously.  Now, it does make blending biodiesel better, but not everybody can benefit from that, per se. So, this idea of farm diesel prices haven't been up. The Energy Information Agency is expecting April to be a top for us this year, and then it will gradually fade away for the rest of the year.”

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