Will USMCA Break Apart This Year?

USTR Chief Ag Trade Negotiator Julie Callahan recently addressed rumors that the six-year review of USMCA this year could turn into separate bilateral talks with Canada and Mexico.   At the recent USDA Ag Outlook Forum that acknowledged that she had also heard the rumors that the USMCA review would devolve into separate bilateral talks.

“Certainly, there are areas of the USMCA that we want to take a look at that focus more on our agricultural trade deficit with Canada, our agricultural trade deficit with Mexico,” Callahan said.

Separate Conversation Topics With Each Nation

But just as in the original USMCA talks, Callahan said talks will occur between and across all three North American partners.  And that’s due to differences in trade frictions.

"Canada’s dairy TRQs are a very bilateral issue," she noted.  "Mexico has less interest in that, so it really is a discussion between the United States and Canada.”

While U.S.-Mexico talks could focus on GMO non-tariff barriers and outstanding seasonal produce issues.

What Has The Ag Trade Deficit With Canada Grown So Much?

But she acknowledged Canada remains a big concern.

“From 2020 to 2024, our agricultural trade deficit with Canada went from $3 billion to almost $12 billion," Callahan said.  "Something is going on there that we really need to look at.”

Callahan insists there must be “reciprocity” in trade, and the U.S. shouldn’t be offshoring its “value-added” Ag production.  She said the U.S. must find ways to turn its USMCA Ag trade deficits into surpluses, so that all U.S. producers can benefit from the agreement.

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