The margin between U.S. Ag exports and imports in the 1st 11 months of 2024, USDA economist Bart Ketter said the January Ag export forecast covering January through November of last year, shows.

 

“Total agricultural exports for $159.8 billion, a 1% increase over last year, and imports were $194.7 billion, a 9% increase over this time last year for a trade balance of -$34.9 billion, which is $14.4 billion less than the $20.5 billion negative balance this time last year.”

 

A particular trend is driving the slower farm and food export rate versus more imports.

 

“The driver of the slower exports in the last couple of years has been the strong dollar compared to foreign currencies and so a lot of the places that compete with U.S. agricultural products on the global market can sell their products at a competitive price to foreign purchasers," Kenner noted.  "And so, we have seen that downturn, though it seems to be leveling off. We’ve got a 1% increase over last year in terms of value.”

 

He said a year over year decrease in value of major bulk Ag exports contributed to the recent export import differential.

 

“When we look at bulk product, which by value make up 31% of the agricultural exports in the US, we see that bulk products are down by value 7% from last year.  And a big part of that is the reduction of unit values, because we actually see by volume substantial increase.

 

“Wheat is 23% higher than last year by volume, coarse grains, corn specifically, is 39% higher than last year by volume. But those categories the wheat was down 2% by value from this time last year, and corn is only up 6% by value over this time last year."

 

Yet when looking at month over month export values.

 

“We've had a big uptake from October to November exports that actually brought us to a year over year increase in the value of agricultural exports.”

 

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