The U.S. farming community is preparing for the possibility of new tariffs, and possibly trade wars, when Donald Trump returns to the White House.  The president-elect has announced he plans to slap tariffs on China, Mexico, Canada and others, for a variety of reasons.

 

Chris Gerlach is vice president of insights and analytics at USApple said while he’s not sure if Trump will follow through, he noted the impact of these tariffs are very real and felt by apple producers, pointing to India as an example.  Gerlach said starting with the 1999-2000 season, the United States was shipping less than $300,000 worth of apples each year.

 

“It took us two decades, but we achieved an export value of almost $175 million a year.  At which point the U.S. imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, and India retaliated with their own tariffs on apples.  What took us two decades to build took us five years to lose, almost totally.  We went down to the 22-23 season to $1.4 million.”

 

Gerlach pointed out that after the 22-23 season the tariffs on steel and aluminum were removed.  Added that once a market or market share is gone, it’s very difficult to get that business back.

 

“In 2018, when we were at the high, the U.S. had a 45% market share in India's fresh apple trade, and Turkey and Iran had only 7%.  By 2022, the U.S. had 1% market share in Turkey and Iran controlled 48% of the market.  And moreover, during this time, India's fresh apple market increased by 20%.”

 

Which Gerlach said means Turkey and Iran are getting a bigger piece of a pie that is much larger than it was eight years ago.

 

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Currently, more than half of the exported apples go to Canada and Mexico.  U.S. apple exports are worth about $1.1 billion annually.

 

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