Shagam Looks At Impact Of Contracting Cattle Herd

The cattle herd nationwide, continues to contract, and USDA livestock analyst Shayle Shagam expects that trend to continue throughout the year.

"We are looking at expectations of a continued decline of probably 1-2% in the cattle inventory during 2022.  So then that would make the end of 2022 the fourth year of contraction in the cattle sector."

Shagam said this means tighter availability of cattle for placement in feedlots.

"The total number of cattle available is about 1.6% below where we were earlier."

Translating into a 2% year-over-year decline in commercial beef production.

Declines in cattle inventory and feed production indicate higher calf prices.

"We are forecasting prices of fed cattle in 2022 to be about $161 per hundred weight, compared to $157 last year.  I'll note that $161 is the highest price since 2015."

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