Rural Bankers Expecting Recession

Rural bankers say they anticipate a U.S. recession, according to the latest Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index.  The region's overall reading for June slumped to 49.8, its lowest level since September 2020, and down from May's 57.7.  The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

Approximately 92.9% of rural bankers surveyed rate the likelihood of a U.S. recession above 50%.  Only 7.1% rated a recession probability below 50%.  However, on average, bank CEOs expect net farm income for grain farmers to be 12.6% above 2021 levels.

The region's farmland price index for June advanced to 76.8 from May's 72.0, marking the 21st straight month that the index has moved above growth neutral.  The June farm equipment-sales index climbed to 71.4 from May's healthy 66.9. This was the 19th straight month that the index has advanced above growth neutral.

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