U of I's Wilder: Questions Remain As 2025 Draw To A Close

With 12 weeks to go on the year, there are many questions about the health and strength of the U.S. farm economy.

And the University of Idaho Ag economist Brett Wilder said many of those questions will still be up in the air heading into 2026. He noted consumer debt continues to climb impacting the overall American economy, which will trickle out to the farm economy.

Another big question is trade.

He said farm country has yet to see the full impact of the trade situation of 2025.

"We haven't really had a chance to absorb all the trade deals that we just struck here around the 1st of August," Wilder said. "What's the balance going to look like? There's certainly lots of concerns by export groups on how that's going to change things. And I've heard mixed things from folks in the industry about trade being still strong, trade being sideways, trade being down. Really is very specific to each crop and country that they're working with.”

Uncle Sam Expected To Send A Lot Of Money To Farmers

Another big question is the commodities that have struggled as of recent, will they be able to rebound in the next year or two. Or will they remain soft for seasons to come.

Wilder added when the dust settles on this year, which could be taken as a positive or a negative, USDA is forecasting 2025 will see the 2nd highest rate of government payments to farmers, only behind 2022, which was post-COVID.

“Part of that's in that big, beautiful bill that went through," Wilder said. "But there will be some relief to this wide swath of crops that are doing poorly. Those crops and commodities that are larger are probably going to get a bigger share of that pie. I think very little of that money is going to come out to those Western states. But there is some relief there.”