Farm Sector Profits to Grow in 2025

ERS is forecasting inflation-adjusted U.S. net cash farm income, better known as gross cash income minus cash expenses, to increase by $30.6 billion from 2024 to $193.7 billion in 2025. U.S. net farm income, a broader measure of farm sector profitability, is forecast to increase by $37.7 billion to $180.1 billion in 2025.

Summary Findings

Overall, farm cash receipts are forecast to decrease by $1.8 billion (0.3%t) from 2024 to $515.0 billion in 2025 in nominal dollars. Total crop receipts are forecast to decrease by $5.6 billion (2.3%) from 2024 levels to $239.6 billion following lower receipts for soybeans and corn. Conversely, total animal/animal product receipts are projected to increase by $3.8 billion (1.4%) to $275.4 billion in 2025. Receipts for hogs, milk, and broilers are forecast to rise relative to 2024.
Direct Government farm payments are forecast at $42.4 billion for 2025, a $33.1-billion increase from 2024. Direct Government farm payments include Federal farm program payments paid directly to farmers and ranchers but exclude U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) loans and insurance indemnity payments made by the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC). The forecast increase is largely because of supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance to farmers and ranchers from the American Relief Act of 2025.
Total production expenses, including those associated with operator dwellings, are forecast to decrease by $2.5 billion (0.6%) from 2024 to $450.4 billion in 2025. Spending on feed is expected to see the largest decline in 2025 while livestock/poultry purchases are expected to see the largest increase relative to 2024.
Farm sector equity is expected to increase by 4.3% ($156.8 billion) from 2024 to $3.83 trillion in 2025 in nominal terms. Farm sector assets are forecast to increase 4.2% ($176.6 billion) to $4.40 trillion in 2025 following an expected increase in the value of farm real estate assets. Farm sector debt is forecast to increase 3.7 percent ($19.8 billion) to $561.8 billion in 2025. Debt-to-asset levels for the sector are forecast to improve slightly from 12.8% in 2024 to 12.8% in 2025. Working capital is forecast to increase 3.9% in 2025 relative to 2024.

Crop cash receipts are forecast at $239.6 billion in 2025, a decrease of $5.6 billion, or 2.3%, from 2024 in nominal terms. Combined receipts for corn and soybeans are forecast to fall $5.8 billion, while vegetable and melon receipts and cotton receipts are expected to increase.

Corn receipts are expected to fall by $2.7 billion (4.3%) in 2025, due to forecasted declines in both prices and quantities sold. Falling prices in 2025 should outweigh slight growth in quantities sold for soybean receipts, which are forecast to decrease by $3.1 billion (6.6%). Conversely, growth in quantities sold should outweigh falling prices for cotton receipts, which are projected to increase by $500 million (10.2%). Forecasted lower prices and quantities sold should result in a decrease in wheat receipts of $400 million (3.5%). Receipts for hay are projected to fall by $800 million (9.4%), mostly due to lower prices.

Vegetable and melon cash receipts are projected to increase $1.3 billion (4.6%) in 2025. This figure includes growth of $0.1 billion in potato receipts. Cash receipts for fruits and nuts in 2025, are forecast to increase $100 million (0.4%) in nominal terms during the year but are projected to decline in inflation-adjusted terms. Falling prices and quantities sold are expected to drive rice receipts $300 million (8.5%) lower, while barley receipts are forecast to decline $200 million (17.1%). Receipts for both sugarcane and sugar beets are forecast to fall in 2025, by $400 million (23.3%) and $500 million (20%), respectively.

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