Are World Alliances Changing Ahead of USMCA Review?

In Davos, Switzerland, Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney made an address describing what he believes to  be a new world order, and a future that, at least for Canada, must reflect a broader range of partners, economically and militarily.

In his speech, Carney said the world is "in the midst of a rupture, not a transition" and went on to say that "Canada was among the first to hear the wake-up call, that geography and historic alliances no longer guaranteed security or prosperity.”

One year ago, when President Trump returned to office, he often referred to Canada as the "51st State" and threatened to join Canada and the U.S. through economic force. The U.S. has hit its closest ally, neighbor, and trading partner with some of the steepest sectoral tariffs.

Michael Ignatieff, a Canadian who describes himself as a ‘citizen of the world’, is a historian and author.  He was an international politics professor at the University of Toronto, then a resident lecturer at England’s Oxford University for many years. Ignatieff returned to Canada in the early 2000’s to act as an interim leader of the federal Liberal Party.  He now resides mostly in Europe.

Ignatieff has analyzed Carney’s Davos speech, and he thinks Carney nailed down some modern, and inconvenient realities that resonated with many, but angered some of the larger powers.

This Is A New World Order

“I think he got it right," Ignatieff said.  "We are in a new world in which all the rules of the international order have been replaced, essentially by a division of the world into three zones of influence that include Canada and Latin America for the United States.  That includes East Asia for China. And then the big unanswered question is what is Russia’s sphere of influence?  Does it include Europe?”

In his Davos speech and at other times, Carney has stated that Canada’s upcoming USMCA review is not going to go smoothly.  Ignatieff thinks that Carney has finally decided to stop ‘being the nice guy’ when it comes to Canada’s overall stance on trade and sovereignty.

There Will Be Damage

“I think Carney has decided he might as well tell the Americans, right now, that Canada cannot accept a deal that’s rammed down their throats," Ignatieff added.  "And that if we have to live in a high-tariff regime with the United States, so be it.  There is going to be damage.  Carney is saying that I couldn’t have made it better by making nice.  Trump is not going to give us Free Trade under any circumstances.  There will be damage. Wake up, this is tomorrow."

Carney spoke much about the Great Powers and Middle Powers in his address. Great Powers are often described as China, Russia, and the United States, among a few others, with economic and military dominance.  Middle powers include such countries as Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, and India, among other nations that often exert some influence on global economics and politics, while their individual economies and strength are more or less of a middle size.

While Carney can only speak for Canada, Ignatieff said that Carney was laying out a broad roadmap for Middle Powers.  And, while Ignatieff says time is not on Carney’s side with such a huge shift in direction, generally, Mark Carney is on the right track.

Canada Needs New Partners

“Carney is saying, look, we can’t do it on our own," Ignatieff said.  "We have to look around, carefully, and find some new partners and actually build an alternative to trade dominated by the United States. Carney’s problem is that all of this takes time. It can be done, but this is a 10-year, 15-year project.”

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