Despite Trade War, Farmer Sentiment Improves

Farmer sentiment improved last month as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer climbed eight points in April to a reading of 148.  The improvement in farmers’ sentiment was bolstered by increases in both the Index of Current Conditions, which rose nine points to 141, and the Index of Future Expectations, which rose eight points to 152.  Dr. Michael Langemeier, Director for the Center for Agriculture and professor of Ag economics at Purdue, says he wasn’t surprised to see the overall score move higher, due primarily to survey questions around trade.

“One of the trade questions, essentially asked, do you think after the trade war that the agriculture is going to be better off in the long run?  And over 2/3 [of respondents] said yes," Langemeier said.  "So, I think that helps explain why the index of future expectations is still relatively high.  I'm a little bit puzzled that the that the index of current conditions is as high as it is.” 

Langemeier said a fairly large percentage of the participants in the survey are livestock producers, particularly cattle, and that sector is enjoying really good economic returns.  He added farmers, nationally, might be feeling a little better than expected because many commodity prices have held up well, despite the tariffs on and from China.

“There were some payments received because the continuing resolution in December, and also, I think people are expecting some payments if these tariffs continue, you know some payments for compensation regarding the current trade policy," Langemeier noted.  "So, if you include the fact that livestock producers are doing fairly well the, crop prices have improved a little bit, and the fact that we're looking at some pretty sizable government payments in ‘25, maybe it makes more sense.” 

He added this month’s results suggest some producers are starting to look beyond near-term uncertainty and focus more on positioning their farms for the future.

Click Here to read the results of the April survey.  The April barometer survey took place between April 14th-21st.

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