Citibank Reports on Trade War: No End Before 2020 Election

A top U.S. investment bank sees no conclusion to the U.S.-China trade war before the 2020 presidential elections.  In a new report, Citibank says the “Implied probabilities of a 2020 recession are now high enough to warrant caution,” due to the ongoing trade war.  The report suggests U.S. economic metrics will “likely deteriorate further” as the trade war continues.

CNBC reports Citi’s shift represents a departure from others on Wall Street who see a trade deal likely happening before the election next year.  Farmers recently reported similar expectations in the August Ag Economy Barometer released by Purdue University and CME Group this week, but that changed slightly last month.  Of 400 farmers surveyed, 71% say a quick resolution is unlikely, down from 78% in July.

Agriculture is taking the brunt of trade war retaliatory tariffs from China. And, China appears poised to hold out to see if President Trump will be reelected or not, potentially shifting the U.S. negotiation views and tactics.

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