Ag Export Pace Could Slow Over Spring and Summer

The first half of the fiscal year has seen U.S. ag exports ahead of last year’s pace, but will it continue?

USDA Outlook Board Chair Seth Meyer said it depends on the commodity. For example, corn and soybeans.

“We’ve seen over time that we’ve kind of switched to a point where the first six months of our marketing year are ours and the second six months, the South Americans tend to supply and we both try to supply the Chinese in essence.”

In 2016, the U.S. benefitted from a poor crop year in Brazil which allowed U.S. exports to end the year strong, but that can’t be expected this year.

Meyer said the key to helping U.S. exports is

“How long we can extend that six months just a little bit. How much we can take from the South Americans really tends to make the difference between an okay year and a pretty good year and that’s what we’ll be keeping an eye on.”

Current fiscal year exports are showing that the U.S. is more than halfway to the projected amount of exports for the full year.