Is Ukraine still relevant in the world corn and wheat export markets?  Joana Colussi, with the University of Illinois, has been writing about the subject for the Farmdoc Daily Website.  Since the beginning of the war with Russia, Colussi says Ukraine's economy has been hit hard.  Its GDP is still 22% below 2021 levels, and she thinks the recovery to pre-war levels could take up to five years, even if the war ended today.

 

Before the conflict, Ukraine was a major player in global agriculture, exporting grains like corn, wheat, and vegetable oil to countries across Europe, Asia, and Africa.  This year, its grain and oilseed production is expected to drop to 74 million metric tons. Colussi said that's 10% lower than the last season.

 

“Ukraine has lost nearly half of its wheat production, primarily due to a decline in acres harvested rather than yields.  A significant increase in wheat yields during the last two seasons has partially offset the sharp reduction in harvested area compared to the pre-war levels.  Corn production has also been affected, though not as badly as wheat.”

 

Colussi said the number of corn acres harvested has dropped, but the impact is less dramatic than that of wheat.  This is because corn is produced widely across the country, with acreage in both central and northern parts of Ukraine, while wheat is heavily concentrated in areas closer to the conflict zones in the east and south.  The geographic proximity to the war zone has taken a greater toll on wheat production in Ukraine, while at the same time, Colussi said farmers have been adjusting to market signals.

 

“Like prices and export opportunities, which have helped maintain some stability. Still, lower yields and reduced acreage have kept overall corn production about 20% below pre-war levels.”

 

Ukraine, despite the production issues, has enough corn and wheat to meet its domestic demand.  This is, in part, because of the shrinking population and a lack of livestock in the country. The lack of livestock is both a short and long-term issue.  It is also one Ukrainians dealt with after the fall of the Soviet Union.  People ate the cows and pigs without regard for breeding stock.  Rebuilding herds can be a years-long process.  It's also probably why Ukraine has been able to meet its wheat and corn export demand, though corn exports fell by 6.6 million metric tons in 2024.

 

“But there is a bright spot here. Grain shipments via seaports now make up 80 percent of all shipments, the highest level since the war started. This shows that Ukraine's export logistics are holding up even in challenging circumstances.”

 

Here are the big-picture numbers. vBefore the war, Ukraine's share of the global corn export market was 30%. It is expected to be 24% this year. Its share of the global wheat market has not suffered as much, down 1% point to 15%.  So, despite significant challenges, damage to its infrastructure, lost farmland, and reduced production, Ukraine's efforts to improve and secure its export logistics and to target those improvements to gain market share in Western Europe have worked.  Colussi said this has allowed Ukraine to remain a player in the global corn and wheat markets.

 

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