USDA Chief Economist Shares Thoughts On Herd Expansion

Will it stay or will it grow?

That’s the question surrounding the U.S. cattle herd.  USDA Chief Economist Justin Benevidez noted when looking at the remainder of this year and into 2027.

“As far as whether or not the herd is going to grow into next year, I'm of the mind that it will, and I'll caveat that with saying I've been of the mind that it'll grow for the last two years,” he noted.  Benevidez said current steer prices are a big contributor.

“No longer at the record-breaking levels that we were earlier in the year, but these are still very high prices, and you can see that the returns to cow-calf producers are the highest they've ever been,” said Benevidez.  So, he said based on 20-year averages on returns.

“We're actually only looking at net returns of about $100 ahead on average," Benevidez said.  "So even though this is a really strong moment for cattle producers, they've been waiting for a long time for this kind of return.”

Benevidez added restructuring in the packing and processing sector could play a role in beef prices for the short-term future.

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