Ag Economy Barometer Reports Slight Uptick In February

Farmer sentiment improved modestly in February, but producers remain cautious about the year ahead.  The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose slightly in February to 116 points.  Despite the uptick, the Future Expectations Index dropped 45 points year-over-year to the lowest level reported since September 2024.

Concerns For The Future Remain

Approximately 44% of those that participated in the survey said their farm operations were worse off in February than they were a year earlier.  Looking ahead 12 months, 29% expected worse financial performance, compared with 18% who expected better financial performance.

The Farm Capital Investment Index rose 3 points to 50, however, only 7% of survey respondents indicated that they plan to increase farm machinery purchases in the upcoming year.

Approximately 15% of respondents indicated that they plan to reduce the size of their operation, and another 34% indicated that they do not plan to grow.  Of the 51% who plan to expand their farms in the next five years, 14% plan to increase their farm size by 10% or more.  If these plans materialize, this group will double in size in five years or less.

Will Business Practices Change?

This survey also asked farmers whether they plan to bring in another family member into the business in the next five years. Results indicated that 36% plan on bringing in another family member into the business within the next five years.

Farmers’ perspective on U.S. agricultural exports was less pessimistic in February than in January but more pessimistic than in December 2025.  Responding to a broad question about the future of agricultural exports, 14% of respondents in February expected exports to decline over the next five years, down from 16% in January and up from 5% in December.

This month’s survey included a question related to the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program announced in late December.  Respondents were asked how they plan to use these payments.  Approximately 47% of respondents indicated that these payments would be used to pay down debt.  Another 27% of respondents said that they would use these payments to improve working capital.  The remainder noted that these payments would be used for family living, 12%, or to invest in farm machinery, 14%.

Short-term financial pressure continues to shape investment decisions—even as many producers plan for long-term growth and succession.

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