AFBF: Trade With China Could Be Very Different

Trade experts say the trade relationship with number-one U.S. Ag customer China could be very different after the current tariff war ends.

Currently China is purchasing its soybeans and much of its other ag needs elsewhere, U.S. producers are wondering if the heady days of record sales to China are over.

“Yeah, it’s been great, while it’s lasted,” said American Farm Bureau trade advisor Dave Salmonsen.  “And nobody, at least in the Ag world was looking for that to come to an end.  They were a big volume buyer and hopefully they will continue to be.  I’m sure they’ll continue to be a significant factor, but maybe not to the extent we’re use to.”

And the administration’s already looking at other markets, including possibly reentering the Trans-Pacific Partnership, to offset losses to China.

“Getting back involved with TPP, especially getting back in the Japanese market would be a start towards that” Salmonsen said.  “To make up some of the losses we’re having with China.  The Japanese part of TPP we’ve estimated we’re going to have about $4-$4.5 billion annually of new exports.”

Salmonsen and others see the administration continuing down the road of confronting China for its trade practices.  So, the AFB official says agriculture needs to look for new or expanded markets; and USDA’s already doing that.

Salmonsen added no one expects China, in the end, will be “closed off” to U.S. agriculture, but he concedes it “potentially will be less than what we were used to selling there.”

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