USDA Projects $37 Billion Ag Trade Deficit Next Year

The USDA is forecasting that the agricultural trade deficit will shrink in 2026 more than previously anticipated.  According to the Quarterly Trade Forecast, USDA expects the trade deficit to drop from $43.7 billion in fiscal year 2025 to $37 billion in fiscal year 2026.

During a previous report released in August, the USDA originally predicted a trade deficit of $41.5 billion in this fiscal year.  Driving the adjusted outlook are factors like larger-than-expected exports.

USDA’s export prediction during FY2026 is now $173 billion, up from the projected $169 billion in August.  However, even with the revision, exports are still set to contract year-over-year after the U.S. recorded $175.6 billion in exports during fiscal year 2025.

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