USDA Expects Ag Trade Deficit to Drop $21 Billion

USDA is now predicting the agricultural trade deficit will drop to $29 billion in fiscal year 2026, down from about $50 billion a year ago.  Luke Lindberg, the USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs, said the trade team isn’t done and has set a goal to get back to a trade surplus.

“Going from $50 billion forecasted to $29 billion is tremendous progress in one year,” he recently told Farm Journal. “That’s down 43% compared to the same time in 2025, and we’re continuing our efforts to make sure that drops even further.”

Exports that saw significant increases by the end of 2025 included dairy, ethanol, and corn exports, up 15%, 11%, and 29%, respectively.  The U.S. ag trade balance is the export value minus the import value, and Lindberg said the export side is where the USDA trade team can and will make the most impact on the bottom line.

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