Belarus Potash Plan Raises More Questions Than It Answers

The Trump Administration is looking to increase potash imports from Belarus, but logistical challenges and higher costs are raising questions about how feasible that may be.

“When you look at the height of Belarusian potash supplies to the U.S. marketplace, and this was around 2017 and 2018, 750,000 tons," said StoneX Vice President of Fertilizer Josh Linville.  "That was when the world was normal, things were flowing as they were, and they only brought in three-quarters of a million tons. We use millions upon millions of tons per year, and Canada accounts for 90% of that. And then you got to look at where Belarus is today. They are landlocked. Normally, they would have moved that product through Lithuania to their deep-sea ports and around the world. That's what they did for years and years and years.”

Linville said with Belarus being landlocked by NATO member countries, that creates additional challenges.

“They are hemmed in on the north, the south, and the west," said Linville.  "The only route they have is to the east in Russia. Takes longer to ship it. It costs more money to ship it.  We think that the channels probably cannot move Belarus's normal flows just because Russia wants to move their own product, and the rail lines and all that didn't exist for them to move normal amounts.  So, they're hemmed in.”

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